There’s nothing like dreaming about a giant blue wave during a holiday. Fortunately, it’s not just a dream, it’s something political prognosticators like Amy Walter at Cook Political Report are starting to ponder. Walter writes:
First, there were the impressive results from [Virginia’s] elections. This week, we’ve seen two polls — one by Quinnipiac and one by Marist — that show Democrats with a congressional ballot advantage of +13 to +15. Three other recent polls — ABC/Washington Post, Fox, and NBC/Wall Street Journal — show Democrats with an advantage of anywhere from +7 to +15.
These are political wave numbers. […]
My colleague David Wasserman has been digging into the question of just how big of a wave Democrats need to get in order to surf into the majority. The short answer: they need to see a generic ballot advantage of +8 or more, which roughly translates to getting at least 54 percent or more of the national House vote in 2018.
The last time Democrats enjoyed a margin of +8 or more in a mid-term year was 2006.
Walter even considers the political upside of Republicans managing to pass their tax giveaway to the rich and major corporations—which is still no sure thing. Regardless of if they succeed, she concludes it wouldn’t be enough to “fundamentally alter” voters’ perceptions of the GOP-led Congress and Donald Trump.
Sure, a lot can change between now and next November. And, Democrats have a narrow path to 24 seats – even with a big wave or tailwind. But, do not ignore what’s right in front of us. A wave is building.
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