Daily Kos Elections PA-18 special election liveblog thread #8

Daily Kos Elections PA-18 special election liveblog thread #8

Polls closed at 8 PM ET in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, where Republican Rick Saccone faces Democrat Conor Lamb in a special election for the final months of former Republican Rep. Tim Murphy’s term. This Western Pennsylvania seat backed Trump 58-39 and Romney 58-41, but Republicans are worried that Trump’s unpopularity, as well as a weak campaign by Saccone and a strong effort from Lamb, will allow Democrats to flip this district. While a new map ordered by the state Supreme Court will dramatically change this seat’s boundaries ahead of the November general election, Republican outside groups have still spent millions to avoid what would be an embarrassing loss.

To help follow along as the results come in, David Jarman has set “benchmarks” for all four counties in the district—target numbers that Lamb would have to meet in order to narrowly win. We’re liveblogging the results below, and you can also follow our coverage on Twitter.

Results: State | New York Times | Associated Press

Wednesday, Mar 14, 2018 · 2:31:18 AM +00:00 · David Nir

580 of 593 precincts are now reporting (98%), and Lamb’s lead is now 49.8 to 49.6, or 585 votes. From the looks of it, the remaining precincts appear to be pretty red. However, absentee ballots apparently will not be counted tonight.

Wednesday, Mar 14, 2018 · 2:32:33 AM +00:00 · David Nir


Lamb (D) should expect a pretty healthy boost from uncounted absentees. Why? 1) They’ve historically skewed Dem 2) More than half of them are from Allegheny Co. (despite Allegheny only being ~43% of #PA18). pic.twitter.com/SAth8WtnY0

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 14, 2018

Wednesday, Mar 14, 2018 · 2:44:16 AM +00:00 · David Nir

A reminder:


There are 119 GOP-held House seats bluer than #PA18.

— Daily Kos Elections (@DKElections) March 14, 2018

Wednesday, Mar 14, 2018 · 2:47:01 AM +00:00 · David Nir

So the last precinct just came in in Lamb-friendly Allegheny County. His margin now stands at 775 votes, or 49.9 percent to 49.5 for Saccone. However, those last 11 precincts are all in red territory: Nine in Washington County and two in Westmoreland County.

But we almost certainly won’t know the winner tonight. That’s because most (if not all) counties are saying they won’t count absentee ballots tonight. So sit tight—very, very tight.

Wednesday, Mar 14, 2018 · 2:51:38 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Okay, check that. There are four counties in this district, and two of them, Greene & Washington, reportedly say they will not count their absentees tonight. However, the other two, Westmoreland and Allegheny, reportedly say they will. In Allegheny’s case, that will reportedly happen at around 11:15 PM ET.

So sit tight—very, very tight.

The liveblog continues here.

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