2020 Election Forecast

2020 Election Forecast

National overviewNational overviewArizonaColoradoFloridaGeorgiaIowaMaine (statewide)MichiganMinnesotaNevadaNew HampshireNew MexicoNorth CarolinaOhioPennsylvaniaVirginiaWisconsinAlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaine (statewide)Maine 1st DistrictMaine 2nd DistrictMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraska (statewide)Nebraska 1st DistrictNebraska 2nd DistrictNebraska 3rd DistrictNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming hey there! I’m Fivey Fox, and I’m here to show you around. Each of these maps is an example of how things might shake out on Election Day.

Latest news

MAY 4, 2020

The race for the presidency is not officially over, but in lots of ways the contest has been resolved. Maine’s 2nd district is heating up and we’re also keeping an eye on Utah’s 1st.

2020 ELECTION COVERAGE

Will Justin Amash’s Presidential Run Help Or Hurt Trump?

By Geoffrey Skelley and Tony Chow

What Went Down In Ohio’s Primary

By Nathaniel Rakich

To put all these numbers in context, check out our coverage and subscribe to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast!Biden is favored to win the election

We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible.

TIE+400ELECTORALVOTES+200+200+40028 in 10028 in 100Trump winsTrump wins72 in 10072 in 100Biden winsBiden winsTrump winBiden win
Don’t count the underdog out! Upset wins are surprising but not impossible.Every outcome in our simulations

All possible Electoral College outcomes for each candidate, with higher bars showing outcomes that appeared more often in our 40,000 simulations

0100200300400500270 ELECTORAL VOTESSmoothedrollingaverageTrumpTrumpwinswinsMorelikelyMorelikely0100200300400500BidenBidenwinswinsMore bars to the right of the 270 line means more simulations where that candidate wins. Some of the bars represent really weird outcomes, but you never know!The winding path to victory

States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes. Trace the path from either end to see which state could put one candidate over the top.

VOTE MARGINSTIPPING POINTS270 ELECTORAL VOTESNE3WYWVIDOKLAHOMANDSDALABAMAKENTUCKYNEUTAHTENNESSEELOUISIANAARKANSASNE1INDIANAKANSASMTMISSISSIPPIMISSOURIAKSOUTH CAROLINATEXASIOWAME2GEORGIAOHIONORTH CAROLINAARIZONANE2FLORIDAWISCONSINPENNSYLVANIAMINNESOTANEVADANHMICHIGANMECOLORADOVIRGINIANMOREGONNEW JERSEYCONNECTICUTME1ILLINOISDERIWASHINGTONNEW YORKMARYLANDCALIFORNIAMASSACHUSETTSHIVTDCMaine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting some to the statewide winner and some to the winner of each district.We call this the 🐍 snake 🐍 chart! This makes it easy to see why some states are hotly contested and others mostly get ignored.How the forecast has changed

The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Click the buttons to see the ways each candidate’s outlook has changed over time.

CHANCE OF WINNINGELECTORAL VOTESPOPULAR VOTEJUNE 1JULY 1AUG. 1SEPT. 1OCT. 1NOV. 10 20 40 60 80 100%72 in 10028 in 10072 in 10028 in 10080% of outcomesfall in this range80% of outcomesfall in this rangeAs the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls 😬 — the forecast will get less uncertain.See states with the closest racesSee states close to the tipping pointNorth CarolinaNorth CarolinaArizonaArizonaOhioOhioGeorgiaGeorgiaFloridaFloridaIowaIowaTexasTexasWisconsinWisconsinPennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaOr choose another stateAlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMaine 1st DistrictMaine 2nd DistrictMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNebraska 1st DistrictNebraska 2nd DistrictNebraska 3rd DistrictNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyomingWant more stuff like this? See how the race is shaping up in individual states, or watch our Election Updates on YouTube.We made this

FORECAST MODEL

Nate Silver

PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Christopher Groskopf

DESIGN

Ryan Best

Jasmine Mithani

Anna Wiederkehr

CONTENT EDITING

Micah Cohen

Sarah Frostenson

Christopher Groskopf

Nate Silver

ART DIRECTION

Emily Scherer

ILLUSTRATION

Fabio Buonocore

Joey Ellis

DEVELOPMENT

Ryan Best

Jay Boice

Aaron Bycoffe

Christopher Groskopf

Jasmine Mithani

Anna Wiederkehr

Julia Wolfe

Yutong Yuan

COPY EDITING

Colleen Barry

Jennifer Mason

DATA & RESEARCH

Aaron Bycoffe

Dhrumil Mehta

Mary Radcliffe

Derek Shan

Download the data:PollsModel Outputs

Notice a 🐛?Send us an email.

Congrats, you made it to the bottom! If you’re looking for the nitty-gritty of how our forecast works, check out the methodology[a].

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How Biden’s Standing In The Polls Compares To Clinton’s At This Point In 2016What You Need To Know About Today’s Elections In Minnesota And GeorgiaFive Ways Trump And GOP Officials Are Undermining The Election ProcessDo You Buy That … Kamala Harris Is Most Likely To Become Biden’s Running Mate?Why GOP Senators Are Sticking With Trump — Even Though It Might Hurt Them In November

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