Political Jason

On Wednesday, I was working on a story about how our primary forecast was handling former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg when other things got in the way. Truth be told, I’m glad I got distracted, because a mildly bearish case on Bloomberg — roughly how I’d describe our model’s current position on him — is a lot easier to explain after Bloomberg’s difficult debate performance last night. That’s not to say the model has handled Bloomberg perfectly. His odds…

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After poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, Joe Biden’s campaign is pinning its hopes on South Carolina — in particular, the black vote there. The rise of Sen. Bernie Sanders and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg in the polls has corresponded with a Biden decline, but South Carolina will be the first state to vote where most of the electorate is black, and black voters have disproportionately supported the former vice president for most of the campaign (before…

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By Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Clare Malone, Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Clare Malone and Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Clare Malone   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Embed Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/28741254/”></iframe> In a late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew assesses the candidates’ performances in the Nevada debate. The candidates were more adversarial than in past debates, and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg…

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After two early state contests with overwhelmingly white electorates, the Nevada caucuses are the Democratic candidates’ first big test among nonwhite voters. And with Latinos making up nearly 30 percent of the state’s population, they could play a big role in determining the winner. But which candidates will connect with Latino voters — and whether they can persuade them to turn out in high numbers — remains to be seen. In 2016, Latinos made up 19 percent of the Democratic…

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