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The Debate Exposed Bloomberg’s Downside — But It Was There All Along

The Debate Exposed Bloomberg’s Downside — But It Was There All Along

On Wednesday, I was working on a story about how our primary forecast was handling former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg when other things got in the way. Truth be told, I’m glad I got distracted, because a mildly bearish case on Bloomberg — roughly how I’d describe our model’s current position on him — is a lot easier to explain after Bloomberg’s difficult debate performance last night. That’s not to say the model has handled Bloomberg perfectly. His odds…

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Biden Has Been Losing Black Voters. Will Bloomberg’s Bad Debate Change That?

Biden Has Been Losing Black Voters. Will Bloomberg’s Bad Debate Change That?

After poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, Joe Biden’s campaign is pinning its hopes on South Carolina — in particular, the black vote there. The rise of Sen. Bernie Sanders and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg in the polls has corresponded with a Biden decline, but South Carolina will be the first state to vote where most of the electorate is black, and black voters have disproportionately supported the former vice president for most of the campaign (before…

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Politics Podcast: Just How Bad Was That Debate For Bloomberg?

Politics Podcast: Just How Bad Was That Debate For Bloomberg?

By Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Clare Malone, Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Clare Malone and Galen Druke, Nate Silver and Clare Malone   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Embed Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/28741254/”></iframe> In a late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew assesses the candidates’ performances in the Nevada debate. The candidates were more adversarial than in past debates, and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg…

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Sanders Has An Edge Among Latino Voters In Nevada. Will It Hold?

Sanders Has An Edge Among Latino Voters In Nevada. Will It Hold?

After two early state contests with overwhelmingly white electorates, the Nevada caucuses are the Democratic candidates’ first big test among nonwhite voters. And with Latinos making up nearly 30 percent of the state’s population, they could play a big role in determining the winner. But which candidates will connect with Latino voters — and whether they can persuade them to turn out in high numbers — remains to be seen. In 2016, Latinos made up 19 percent of the Democratic…

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Thursday night owls: Excerpts from the March edition of the Harper’s Index

Thursday night owls: Excerpts from the March edition of the Harper’s Index

Night Owls, a themed open thread, appears at Daily Kos seven days a week From the Harper’s Index: Number of European nations whose leader is 45 years old or younger: 15 Average percentage of their fortunes that the twenty richest Americans gave to charity in 2018: 0.8 Percentage of U.S. manufacturing jobs that required a bachelor’s degree in 1983: 14 That required one in 2018: 31 Percentage of the world’s cities with populations over 500,000 that experience periodic water shortages:…

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