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The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump

The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump

2024 Republican Debates The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump Six of the eight candidates from the first debate appear set to qualify for the Sept. 27 event. By Geoffrey Skelley Sep. 14, 2023, at 6:00 AM Eight Republican candidates participated in the party’s first primary debate in August. But the stage could feature fewer contenders when the GOP holds its next debate later this month. Joshua Lott / The Washington Post via Getty Images The…

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What Americans Think Of The Biden Impeachment Inquiry

What Americans Think Of The Biden Impeachment Inquiry

Impeachment What Americans Think Of The Biden Impeachment Inquiry Most aren’t convinced President Biden is implicated in his son’s wrongdoing. By Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux Sep. 14, 2023, at 3:41 PM Photo Illustration by ABC News / Getty Images Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly-ish polling roundup. It’s officially impeachment season again. On Tuesday, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced that he’s directing three House committees to start investigating whether President Biden benefited from his son Hunter’s business dealings overseas. McCarthy accused the…

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The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans

The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans

2024 Election The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah isn’t seeking a second term, and his potential successors are generally more conservative. By Nathaniel Rakich Sep. 13, 2023, at 6:40 PM In his announcement that he would not seek a second term, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney stressed the need for a new generation of leadership in the U.S. Win McNamee / Getty Images On Wednesday, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney announced he…

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Why ‘Bidenomics’ Isn’t Working For Biden

Why ‘Bidenomics’ Isn’t Working For Biden

2024 Election Why ‘Bidenomics’ Isn’t Working For Biden The economy is improving, but Americans aren’t giving Biden credit for it. A FiveThirtyEight Chat Sep. 12, 2023, at 4:07 PM Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst): For a long time, the economy has been seen as a big liability for President Biden in his reelection bid. Inflation soared in 2021 and 2022, culminating at a rate of 9.1 percent…

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Why Biden Is Losing Support Among Voters Of Color

Why Biden Is Losing Support Among Voters Of Color

Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that you’d usually expect from the final two months of a campaign, not the final year and two months of a campaign. The focus was largely on general election polls: Whether a Wall Street Journal poll showing former President Donald Trump and President Biden tied is to be trusted. What to make of a CNN poll showing Nikki Haley as the…

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Politics Podcast: Polling Silly Season Begins

Politics Podcast: Polling Silly Season Begins

FiveThirtyEight   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Amazon Music | Spotify Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that you’d usually expect from the final two months of a campaign, not the final year and two months of a campaign. The focus was largely on general election polls: Whether a Wall Street Journal poll showing former President Donald Trump and President Biden tied is to be trusted. What…

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Ron DeSantis Probably Didn’t Turn Florida Red

Ron DeSantis Probably Didn’t Turn Florida Red

Ron DeSantis Ron DeSantis Probably Didn’t Turn Florida Red The state was already changing in big ways before he was elected governor. By Nathaniel Rakich Sep. 11, 2023, at 2:34 PM ABC News Photo Illustration / Win McNamee / Getty Images In his presidential campaign, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pitched himself as a transformational leader who has reshaped the politics of his home state. His 2022 reelection by 19 percentage points “was not just a big victory,” he has…

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Aging Politicians Are Only Going To Get More Common

Aging Politicians Are Only Going To Get More Common

Age Aging Politicians Are Only Going To Get More Common By Monica Potts Sep. 7, 2023, at 6:00 AM Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s recent freezes in front of cameras, in conjunction with the comparatively advanced ages of the two presidential front-runners, has American voters thinking about politicians’ ages. Drew Angerer / Getty Images Presidents are getting older and older. Former President Donald Trump was the oldest person to assume office when he was sworn in on Jan. 20, 2017,…

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Should We Trust Polls Campaigns Leak To The Press?

Should We Trust Polls Campaigns Leak To The Press?

Now that we are on the other side of Labor Day and summer is subsiding, this is — as tradition goes — when focus on political campaigns really begins to heat up. The off-year elections this November will get some attention, but the main attraction is still the 2024 Republican presidential primary. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we ask a question we will undoubtedly return to in the four months until the Iowa caucuses: Is Donald Trump’s…

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What Are The Swing States Of The Future?

What Are The Swing States Of The Future?

2024 Election What Are The Swing States Of The Future? A FiveThirtyEight Chat Sep. 6, 2023, at 10:45 AM Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. ameliatd (Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, senior reporter): The residents of states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are used to having their airwaves flooded with political ads as presidential elections draw near. But over the years, there’s actually been a lot of variation in which states have the most power to decide…

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