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Biden Doesn’t Have A Popularity Problem. That Might Help Him Win.

Biden Doesn’t Have A Popularity Problem. That Might Help Him Win.

From the start of the Democratic primary, many Democratic voters prioritized electability, with plenty believing that Joe Biden was the most electable Democratic candidate in a general election against President Trump. Not everyone bought that argument: Some argued that Trump would easily caricature Biden and make him less popular with voters. Even FiveThirtyEight was skeptical of Biden’s electability argument. Sure, Biden was well-known and perceived as moderate, not to mention experienced. But it was hard to evaluate the accuracy of…

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Politics Podcast: There Just Isn’t Good Evidence That ‘Shy’ Trump Voters Exist

Politics Podcast: There Just Isn’t Good Evidence That ‘Shy’ Trump Voters Exist

By Galen Druke and Nate Silver and Galen Druke and Nate Silver   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS This is the final(!) preelection installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke talks to editor-in-chief Nate Silver about the latest polling shifts in key battleground states and whether there is any reason to believe that “shy Trump voters” will deliver an upset win for the president on Election Day. (The evidence suggests there isn’t.) You…

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When To Expect Election Results In Every State

When To Expect Election Results In Every State

Intro hed: When To Expect Election Results In Every State dek: A complete guide to poll closing times, vote counting and races to watch on election night 2020 author1: [Nathaniel Rakich](https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nathaniel-rakich/) author2: [Elena Mejía](https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/elena-mejia-lutz/) art: Illustrations by [David Huang](http://www.david-huang.com/) see_also.readin: [see_also.links] * [] top: Back to top Intro [+intro] [There’s a good chance](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-were-planning-for-an-election-day-that-could-last-months/) we won’t know who won the presidential election on election night. More people than ever are [voting by mail this year](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-had-56-statewide-elections-during-the-pandemic-heres-what-we-learned-from-them/) due to the pandemic, and mail…

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QAnon Isn’t Going To Take Over Congress In 2020. But It’s Found A Home In The GOP.

QAnon Isn’t Going To Take Over Congress In 2020. But It’s Found A Home In The GOP.

Marjorie Taylor Greene has not been shy about her support for QAnon — a conspiracy theory that alleges the existence of a widespread child sex trafficking ring run by a cabal of satanic and cannibalistic elites, whom only President Trump can stop. She has tweeted “#GreatAwakening” to Alex Jones, called Q “a patriot” and has even hosted videos detailing the evidence she believes proves Q is “the real deal.” When she won the Republican nomination for Georgia’s 14th District, academics…

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Politics Podcast: All The Stuff We Should Have Talked More About In 2020

Politics Podcast: All The Stuff We Should Have Talked More About In 2020

By Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Micah Cohen, Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Micah Cohen, Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Micah Cohen and Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Micah Cohen   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS Only five days remain until Election Day, and Joe Biden currently has a 89 percent chance of winning, according to our forecast. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics…

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The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls

The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls

With apologies to The Raconteurs, the presidential race continues to be “steady as she goes,” with little sign of tightening despite a plethora of new polls. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election, while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance. This makes Biden the favorite, but still leaves open a narrow path to victory for Trump, for whom a reelection win would be surprising — but not utterly shocking….

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