Political Jason

2022 Election 5 Reasons For Democrats To Still Be Concerned About The Midterms By Nate Silver Sep. 30, 2022, at 11:38 AM ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER Last week, I argued that there weren’t yet clear signs of a Republican comeback in polls of the midterm elections. This week? The case for a GOP rebound is a little better. For one, Republicans can cite some individual polls that have been favorable for them. There was a poll this weekend from ABC…

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Hurricane Ian How Natural Disasters Can Change A Politician By Maggie Koerth Sep. 30, 2022, at 2:36 PM PAUL HENNESSY / ANADOLU AGENCY / GETTY IMAGES In September 2017, Hurricane Irma swept across the southern tip of Florida, swamping what was then the state’s 26th Congressional District. The following July, that district’s Republican representative, Carlos Curbelo, introduced a bill that would tax greenhouse-gas emissions to help reduce the impact of climate change on his hurricane-prone constituency. Curbelo’s party affiliation raised…

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Iran Iranians Are Ready For A Different Approach to Religion and Government By Zoha Qamar Sep. 30, 2022, at 6:00 AM PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY DAN DAO / GETTY IMAGES Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Protests in Iran have been raging on for nearly two weeks because 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in the custody of the “morality police” after she allegedly failed to comply with the nation’s veiling laws. The protests that began on the streets of Saqqez, her…

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2022 Election Democrats Need More Than Beto O’Rourke If They Want To Flip Texas By Alex Samuels Sep. 29, 2022, at 10:10 AM PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES Once again, everyone can’t stop talking about Beto O’Rourke. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average1 shows a single-digit contest in the Texas gubernatorial race between O’Rourke and the Republican incumbent, Greg Abbott. Earlier this year, O’Rourke made headlines for his record-breaking fundraising, and the fallout from a succession of high-profile events in the…

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Hurricanes How Waffle House Helps Us Respond To Hurricanes After a hurricane, the 24/7 restaurant provides one measure of how infrastructure and supply chains are holding up. By Maryn McKenna Sep. 29, 2022, at 1:36 PM A Waffle House in Jacksonville, Florida, ahead of Hurricane Ian. Logan Bowles via AP This 2016 story followed a team of Waffle House operations analysts as they decided whether to close any of the chain’s locations in preparation for Hurricane Matthew, a Category 5…

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FiveThirtyEight   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS According to the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast, Republicans have a 69 percent chance of winning back the House, while Democrats have a 68 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate, although there has been some movement behind those topline numbers. In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how polling could change before the midterms, including the shift from registered voters…

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2022 Election Two Election Deniers Are Facing Very Different Odds In Arizona By Kaleigh Rogers Sep. 29, 2022, at 10:00 AM ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES There are election deniers, and then there’s Kari Lake. While 201 Republican nominees4 have fully denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election, few have made claims of fraud as central to their campaign as Lake, the Republican nominee for Arizona governor. A darling among former President Donald Trump’s endorsees, Lake has repeated…

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2022 Election Do Democrats And Republicans Agree On Anything About Climate Change And Immigration? By Holly Fuong and Geoffrey Skelley and Holly Fuong and Geoffrey Skelley Graphics by Humera Lodhi Sep. 29, 2022, at 6:00 AM PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES This article is part of our America’s Issues series. The last few weeks have been tumultuous for the issues of climate change and immigration. Record-setting summer temperatures, historic floods and devastating hurricanes have raised the stakes for…

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2022 Election Women Have Swung Toward Democrats Since The Dobbs Decision Men have too. By Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Meredith Conroy and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Meredith Conroy Sep. 28, 2022, at 1:06 PM MICHELLE GUSTAFSON / BLOOMBERG / GETTY IMAGES With about a month before the midterm election, some Republican candidates across the country are scrambling to moderate their position on abortion. Supporting the recent Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization — which overturned Roe v. Wade…

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2022 Election Progressives Took A Step Back In The 2022 Primaries — But They’re Playing The Long Game By Meredith Conroy and Nathaniel Rakich and Meredith Conroy and Nathaniel Rakich Sep. 27, 2022, at 1:30 PM Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (center) endorsed four House and Senate primary candidates without an incumbent on the ballot. Greg Casar (right) won his primary for Texas’s 35th District, but Jessica Cisneros (left) wasn’t so lucky in the race for the state’s 28th District. Eric Gay…

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