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Politics Podcast: Can Economic Data Predict Elections?

Politics Podcast: Can Economic Data Predict Elections?

By Galen Druke, Sarah Frostenson, Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr., Galen Druke, Sarah Frostenson, Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr., Galen Druke, Sarah Frostenson, Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke, Sarah Frostenson, Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr.   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS Last week economic data revealed the largest-ever quarterly contraction of the U.S. economy. The second-quarter GDP shrunk by an annual rate of nearly 33 percent. In this installment of…

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There Have Been 38 Statewide Elections During The Pandemic. Here’s How They Went.

There Have Been 38 Statewide Elections During The Pandemic. Here’s How They Went.

In mid-March, as businesses shuttered, hospitals filled up and Americans hunkered down at home, election officials faced a difficult question: Was it even possible to hold safe and accessible elections in the age of COVID-19? More than four months later, we’re not that much closer to answering that question. Since the World Health Organization declared an official pandemic on March 11, 37 states plus Washington, D.C., have held statewide primaries1 for president or state-level office. And while those that have…

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Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They’re Wrong.

Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They’re Wrong.

Will you get robbed this year? How would you rate your chances? Over 10 years, from 1994 to 2004, the national Survey of Economic Expectations asked respondents to do just that. People estimated their risks for a whole host of bad-news life events — robbery, burglary, job loss and losing their health insurance. But the survey didn’t just ask respondents to rate their chances: It also asked whether those things had actually happened to them in the last year. And…

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We’re Hiring A Politics Reporter

We’re Hiring A Politics Reporter

FiveThirtyEight is seeking a reporter to write about politics and elections with a particular focus on race. This person will work both independently and in collaboration with colleagues across the newsroom to produce one to two stories each week about U.S. politics, elections and how race and identity intersect with each. Experience reporting on and writing about race and identity in America is a must. As is some experience with data — how to find it, how to ask questions…

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Some Republicans Have Gotten More Concerned About COVID-19

Some Republicans Have Gotten More Concerned About COVID-19

This month, for the first time since April, our tracker of public opinion around the coronavirus shows that the share of Americans who say they are “very” concerned that they or someone they know will become infected with COVID-19 is higher than the share who say they are “somewhat” concerned. That rise in concern is understandable, too, when you consider the spike in new coronavirus cases that began in mid-June, especially in the South and West. Just this past week,…

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A Republican Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump

A Republican Congressman Who Might Not Vote For Trump

For this week’s episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we interviewed Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District. And as you’ll hear in the podcast and read in selected excerpts below, we covered a lot of ground, including whether Hurd will vote for President Trump in November. By Galen Druke   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS The transcript below has been lightly edited. On whether Hurd will vote for Trump: Galen Druke: I want to talk…

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Confidence Interval: Will Biden Choose Kamala Harris As His VP?

Confidence Interval: Will Biden Choose Kamala Harris As His VP?

Welcome to another episode of Confidence Interval, where we make a persuasive case for a hot take … and then reveal how confident we really feel about the idea. This time, elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich argues that Joe Biden will pick Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate. Powered by WPeMatico

Gun Sales Are Surging, But Background Checks Aren’t Keeping Up

Gun Sales Are Surging, But Background Checks Aren’t Keeping Up

Gun sales were so slow earlier this year that in February, The New York Times ran a piece on how some gun manufacturers were looking to rebrand to make up for the “Trump slump.” But then the pandemic hit. And on Friday, March 13, when President Trump declared a national emergency, the number of background checks went through the roof, according to the FBI system that vets gun buyers. In March, the FBI received almost 1.5 million requests for background…

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Trump Can’t Postpone The Election, But He Can Delegitimize The Results.

Trump Can’t Postpone The Election, But He Can Delegitimize The Results.

Welcome to a special edition of FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Earlier today, President Trump tweeted that the 2020 election should be delayed “until people can properly, securely and safely vote.” Postponing the election, of course, is not something the president can legally do. But it’s also kind of besides the point. Trump has already been fighting to delegitimize the results come November, claiming that voting by mail can lead…

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