Browsed by
Category: 538

Auto Added by WPeMatico

Do Voters Want Democrats Or Republicans In Congress?

Do Voters Want Democrats Or Republicans In Congress?

Are Democrats Or Republicans Winning The Race For Congress? An updating estimate of the generic ballot, based on polls that ask people which party they would support in a congressional election. DATES POLLSTER GRADE SAMPLE WEIGHT REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT LEADER ADJUSTED LEADER MAY 27-30 YouGov B 1,266 RV 0.76 33% 39% Democrat +6 Democrat +8 MAY 25-30 Morning Consult 1,991 RV 0.54 39% 43% Democrat +4 Democrat +7 MAY 20-23 YouGov B 1,266 RV 0.65 36% 38% Democrat +2 Democrat +4…

Read More Read More

Our Best Tool For Predicting Midterm Elections Doesn’t Show A Republican Wave — But History Is On The GOP’s Side

Our Best Tool For Predicting Midterm Elections Doesn’t Show A Republican Wave — But History Is On The GOP’s Side

As it is every two years, control of the House and Senate will once again be at stake in the November 2022 midterm elections, and one of the best tools we have for predicting those election results is polling of the generic congressional ballot. The generic congressional ballot question typically asks respondents which party they intend to vote for in the upcoming congressional election, without naming specific candidates1 — allowing the question to be asked nationally to gauge the overall…

Read More Read More

What The Failed California Recall Does — And Doesn’t — Tell Us

What The Failed California Recall Does — And Doesn’t — Tell Us

In this late-night edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. Votes are still being counted, but it’s looking like the recall effort is going to fail by a sizable margin. By Galen Druke, Sarah Frostenson, Nathaniel Rakich and Maya Sweedler, Galen Druke, Sarah Frostenson, Nathaniel Rakich and Maya Sweedler, Galen Druke, Sarah Frostenson, Nathaniel Rakich and Maya Sweedler and Galen Druke, Sarah Frostenson, Nathaniel Rakich and Maya Sweedler   More:…

Read More Read More

Why A Republican Might Win In Virginia’s Governor Race, And How New Jersey’s Race Could Get Tighter

Why A Republican Might Win In Virginia’s Governor Race, And How New Jersey’s Race Could Get Tighter

California’s recall election has understandably dominated headlines, but there are two other gubernatorial elections this November that might tell us more about the national environment: Virginia and New Jersey. To be sure, President Joe Biden carried both of these states by double-digit margins in 2020, and neither state has been terribly hospitable to Republicans since former President Trump won the 2016 election. But in recent weeks, Biden’s approval rating has taken a sizable hit as the situation in Afghanistan has…

Read More Read More

Does The Census Not Adequately Capture Your Racial Identity? We Want To Hear Your Story.

Does The Census Not Adequately Capture Your Racial Identity? We Want To Hear Your Story.

The U.S. Census Bureau released a surprising finding in their August announcement of 2020 census results: The number of Americans who identify as multiracial jumped 276 percent over the last decade. Then again, depending on how you count, the share of Americans that identify as white either rose 2 percent — or dropped 9 percent. Racial identity is not always easily captured by checkboxes. That’s why we’re hoping to talk with Americans who either feel like the census doesn’t wholly…

Read More Read More

Politics Podcast: Will Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Work?

Politics Podcast: Will Biden’s Vaccine Mandates Work?

FiveThirtyEight   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS Tuesday is election day in California as Governor Gavin Newsom faces a recall election, only the fourth gubernatorial recall election in U.S. history. In this installment of the Politics podcast, The FiveThirtyEight crew checks in on the recall and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping the Wyoming primary. They also discuss whether surveys asking people about Democrats’ $3.5 trillion social programs bill is a…

Read More Read More

What Three Upcoming Elections Can Tell Us About The Political Climate

What Three Upcoming Elections Can Tell Us About The Political Climate

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary. They also discuss Biden’s sweeping vaccine mandate, how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, their overall effectiveness and if Biden’s is legal. Powered by WPeMatico