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Does Trump Really Have Unique Appeal Among Working-Class Whites?

Does Trump Really Have Unique Appeal Among Working-Class Whites?

In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team discusses comments former Vice President Joe Biden made during a conversation about black voters. The crew also talks through the findings of a new study about white working class voters in the 2016 election. Powered by WPeMatico

3 States Have Made It Easier To Vote By Mail In November. Trump Isn’t Happy.

3 States Have Made It Easier To Vote By Mail In November. Trump Isn’t Happy.

Last week, President Trump fired off an angry tweet attacking Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, for expanding access to mail voting amid the COVID-19 pandemic: Michigan sends absentee ballot applications to 7.7 million people ahead of Primaries and the General Election. This was done illegally and without authorization by a rogue Secretary of State. I will ask to hold up funding to Michigan if they want to go down this Voter Fraud path! — Donald J. Trump…

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How Much Trump Could Help (Or Harm) Down-Ballot Republicans In November

How Much Trump Could Help (Or Harm) Down-Ballot Republicans In November

Looking ahead to November, the presidential race could decide more than just who the next president is. It could also determine which party controls the Senate or House or even a state’s legislature. And that’s because of something political science calls the “coattail effect,” which is when the popularity of a candidate at the top of the ticket — we’re most interested in presidential coattails — boosts the fortunes of candidates from the same party lower down on the ballot….

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Politics Podcast: Questions About The Parties’ Bases

Politics Podcast: Questions About The Parties’ Bases

By Galen Druke, Clare Malone, Micah Cohen and Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Clare Malone, Micah Cohen and Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Clare Malone, Micah Cohen and Nate Silver and Galen Druke, Clare Malone, Micah Cohen and Nate Silver   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Embed Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/29225473/”></iframe> This installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast keys in on the presumptive presidential nominees’ relationships with important parts of their…

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Are Arizona, Georgia And Texas Really In Play?

Are Arizona, Georgia And Texas Really In Play?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Former Vice President Joe Biden’s team is talking a big game about an expanded electoral map with Arizona, Georgia and Texas in play, even though those states haven’t voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in two decades. So let’s talk about just how feasible this strategy is. How competitive are those three states at this point? And what’s more, how does this…

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Don’t Expect A Quick Recovery. Our Survey Of Economists Says It Will Likely Take Years.

Don’t Expect A Quick Recovery. Our Survey Of Economists Says It Will Likely Take Years.

Graphics by Yutong Yuan All across the country, the gears of the economy are grinding slowly and creakily into motion. Retail stores are newly open for in-person shopping in California. It’s possible to get a much-needed haircut in Alabama. And in Alaska, bartenders are even slinging drinks again — albeit with strict capacity and spacing limits. The reopening of the economy might seem like a promising sign. After all, as shuttered stores and restaurants reopen, workers can return to their…

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How Accurate Are State Polls? And What Could That Mean For November?

How Accurate Are State Polls? And What Could That Mean For November?

Our latest recap of the accuracy of polling in American elections reinforced something we’ve been saying for a while: The polls are all right. In particular, polls of presidential general elections have historically been quite accurate. Polls conducted in the final 21 days before the last five presidential general elections had a weighted average error of 4.0 points.2 (We define error as the absolute difference between a poll’s margin between the top two candidates and the actual vote share margin….

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The Gap Between Democrats And Republicans Is Growing On The Coronavirus Crisis

The Gap Between Democrats And Republicans Is Growing On The Coronavirus Crisis

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week When it comes to the coronavirus pandemic, one of the storylines we’ve been following is the growing gap between how Democrats and Republicans view the crisis. The most obvious divide until this point has been largely political: that is, how Democrats and Republicans view President Trump’s handling of the pandemic. As FiveThirtyEight’s tracker on coronavirus polls1 shows, 82.2 percent of Republicans approve of the president’s response compared with just…

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