Political Jason

Redistricting may reshape the electoral playing field for a U.S. House incumbent in different ways — a seat might become much safer, more vulnerable or even cease to exist. But on rare occasions, changes wrought by redistricting can also pit two incumbents against one another in the next election. In some cases, incumbents from the same party meet in a primary faceoff; at other times, members from opposing parties confront each other in a general election showdown. Most election cycles…

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FiveThirtyEight   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS Last week, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer held a vote on changing the rules of the filibuster, setting up Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema for high-profile breaks with the Democratic Party. It was reminiscent of Senators John McCain, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins all voting against the repeal of the Affordable Care Act in 2017, after the GOP campaigned on its repeal for four election cycles. Of course, the…

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In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew debates why politicians break with their parties in high-profile ways and what the repercussions can be. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden’s dismissal of the polls is a “good or bad use of polling.” Powered by WPeMatico

When you have a toothache, you call a dentist; when you have a leaky faucet, you call a plumber. You want someone with on-the-job experience dealing with the challenges that confront you.  This used to be overwhelmingly true in our elections, too, as political science research has long found that candidates who have held political office generally outperform candidates with no elected experience. But there are signs that this is now changing, with voters showing a greater willingness to back…

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New Jersey. Arizona. California. Michigan. While the rest of us were enjoying roast beast and champagne during the last couple weeks of December, members of independent and bipartisan redistricting commissions in those states were completing the work of drawing new congressional lines. In fact, by Tuesday of this week (when New York’s advisory redistricting commission is due to send the legislature its final proposed congressional map), all but one1 of the congressional redistricting commissions in the country will be done…

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Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Like a decent chunk of American workers currently, I’ve been feeling the effects of burnout.  Of course, I can chalk up how I’m feeling to a number of self-imposed expectations and personal habits (or lack thereof), like taking on too many “side hustles” outside of my nine-to-five, or my own forgetfulness when it comes to making lunches during the work day, or working longer hours — as many remote employees are — because the news…

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PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES It’s been almost 49 years since the Supreme Court issued its ruling in Roe v. Wade on January 22, 1973. And in the half-century since abortion became a constitutional right, a lot has changed. Clinics have closed, restrictions have mounted and abortion has become one of the most polarizing issues in American politics. At the same time, women are receiving far fewer abortions than they were in the past. But something else…

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Many analyses of congressional redistricting so far have tried to sum the situation up into a single sentence. While we understand the urge, it’s increasingly the case that there is no one takeaway from the 2021-22 redistricting cycle. In reality, the picture is complicated: Democrats have gained seats based on partisanship alone … but Republicans have gained when you factor in which party currently holds the seat. The House map’s long-term Republican bias has lessened somewhat … but it’s still…

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The carefully calibrated unity formed among the Democratic Party and its base on voting rights was short-lived. After the White House announced earlier this month that President Biden and Vice President Harris would travel to Georgia to give an impassioned plea on preserving the right to vote — despite not having enough voting power to take any meaningful action — activists mounted a lobbying blitz encouraging leadership to stay in Washington, D.C. Their frustration was obvious: After over a year…

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