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Election Update: Where Biden And Trump Have Gained The Most Ground

Election Update: Where Biden And Trump Have Gained The Most Ground

From 30,000 feet, the presidential race looks much as it did when we first launched our presidential election forecast in August. Joe Biden has about a 3 in 4 chance of winning compared to President Trump’s roughly 1 in 4 shot, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast. Biden’s chances did dip down to a 2 in 3 shot after the Republican National Convention on Aug. 31, but overall, his chances of winning have hung out in the low- to mid-70 percent range….

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Trump Has Lost His Edge In TV Advertising

Trump Has Lost His Edge In TV Advertising

For months, President Trump’s campaign boasted that its campaign operation was a “juggernaut” and compared it to the powerful Death Star. Nowhere was that more evident to the general public than on the television airwaves. According to data from Kantar/Campaign Media Analysis Group, from early May through July 28, 2020, the Trump campaign and Republican outside groups spent an estimated $80.1 million to air 161,744 ads on local broadcast, national network and national cable TV for the presidential general election….

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Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2020 Election

Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2020 Election

This is the fourth in a series of articles examining the politics and demographics of 2020’s expected swing states. Right now, Pennsylvania looks like the single most important state of the 2020 election. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is by far the likeliest state to provide either President Trump or Joe Biden with the decisive vote in the Electoral College: It has a 31 percent chance of being the tipping-point state.1 (That’s what happens when you take one of…

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Why Some Latino Voters Are Backing Trump

Why Some Latino Voters Are Backing Trump

In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew talks to Carlos Odio, the co-founder of Equis Research, about political trends among Latino voters. They also discuss whether polls in the Midwest have corrected their biases and whether scandals still matter. Powered by WPeMatico

Politics Podcast: Trump Is Narrowing The Gap With Latino Voters

Politics Podcast: Trump Is Narrowing The Gap With Latino Voters

By Galen Druke, Clare Malone, Perry Bacon Jr. and Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Clare Malone, Perry Bacon Jr. and Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Clare Malone, Perry Bacon Jr. and Nate Silver and Galen Druke, Clare Malone, Perry Bacon Jr. and Nate Silver   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS Recent polling shows that President Trump is improving his standing among Latino voters in the presidential race, particularly in Florida. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the…

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What If Trump Loses And Won’t Leave?

What If Trump Loses And Won’t Leave?

For months now, President Trump has carefully planted the seed that he might not leave the office of the presidency willingly if he loses. Whether it’s tweeting that the election should be delayed as it “will be the most inaccurate and fraudulent election in history” or that there will be widespread voter fraud because of the expected uptick in mail ballots due to the coronavirus, Trump seems intent on undermining the electoral process. This, in turn, raises a rather thorny…

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Why Coming Up With Effective Interventions To Address COVID-19 Is So Hard

Why Coming Up With Effective Interventions To Address COVID-19 Is So Hard

It has been hard to measure the effects of the novel coronavirus. Not only is COVID-19 far-reaching — it’s touched nearly every corner of the globe at this point — but its toll on society has also been devastating. It is responsible for the deaths of over 905,000 people around the world, and more than 190,000 people in the United States alone. The associated economic fallout has been crippling. In the U.S., more people lost their jobs in the first…

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Politics Podcast: How Ohio Is Preparing For The Pandemic Election

Politics Podcast: How Ohio Is Preparing For The Pandemic Election

By Galen Druke   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS Election Day is just over 50 days away and elections officials around the country are preparing for an unprecedented election amid the coronavirus pandemic. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose discusses how he is addressing the challenges of the 2020 election. You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading…

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