Live coverage: June 14 primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina

Live coverage: June 14 primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina

Four states are conducting primaries Tuesday, while Texas’ 34th Congressional District is also holding a special all-party primary for the remaining months of Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela’s term. We’ll be liveblogging the results here and also covering the returns closely on Twitter.

Key races: Previews | Cheat-sheet ●●● Results: ME | ND | NV | SC | TX-34

We always caution on election nights not to read too much into the first trickle of returns, since they’re often unrepresentative of the electorate as a whole and can therefore be misleading. That’s why we wait until we have a substantial number of votes tallied before we start covering any results, whether in liveblogs like this one or on Twitter.

Our traditional rule of thumb has been to wait until we have about 10% of results in, an amount that allows us to start drawing some conclusions—though of course, in closer races, much often remains up for grabs. In the past, we would rely on the percentage of precincts reporting to determine whether we’d hit this threshold, since 10% of precincts was a pretty close approximation of 10% of the vote.

But in more recent years, the increasing adoption of early voting and mail voting has rendered this metric useless, since “precincts reporting” often covers only ballots cast in person on Election Day. The Associated Press and other outlets have sought to adapt by coming up with an estimate of the total expected vote; the AP says their estimates are “informed by past turnout, advance votes cast and early returns,” meaning they can shift somewhat over the course of a night.

We’ll be relying on these estimates tonight, so if you see an update that says something like “… with 56% of the vote in,” that’s what we’re referring to. We hope they turn out to be reliable, but we’ll make adjustments on the fly if needed.


Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 12:03:10 AM +00:00

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David Jarman

TX-34: Polls have closed in the special election in Texas’s 34th district in the Rio Grande Valley, an open seat left vacant by the resignation of Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela, and where Republicans have made a big push for a half-year rental of this light-blue seat. 

We’re also still waiting, one hour post-closing, for enough votes to be counted in South Carolina for us to be able to say anything conclusive about the two races we’re watching there, the Republican primaries in SC-01 and SC-07.


Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 12:17:56 AM +00:00

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David Jarman

SC-Gov: One race that’s of mild interest to us (it’s unfortunately unlikely to be competitive in the general election) is the Democratic primary in the South Carolina gubernatorial race, where the winner faces Republican incumbent Henry McMaster. Very early votes made this race look competitive for state Rep. Mia McLeod, but now that we’ve hit 10% ‘estimated vote counted,’ an upset is looking less likely: ex-U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham leads McLeod 60-28.


Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 12:23:44 AM +00:00

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David Jarman

SC-07: We’ve also hit the threshold in the Republican primary in the 7th congressional district in the area around Myrtle Beach; this race features an incumbent, Tom Rice, but who voted in favor of impeachment of Donald Trump despite being in a dark red district. That’s going over about as well as you’d expect, as Rice’s leading opponent (and Trump endorsee) state Rep. Russell Fry leads Rice by a wide margin, 45-30. South Carolina, of course, is subject to a runoff requirement, so Fry and Rice may need to face off again without the clutter of multiple other candidates; what we’ll be watching tonight is more a question of Fry vs. the 50% mark.


Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 12:27:22 AM +00:00

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David Jarman

TX-34: We’re suddenly up to 34% ‘estimated vote counted’ in the special election in Texas’s 34th district, and it’s going somewhat better than expected for the Democratic candidate here, former Cameron Co. Commissioner Dan Sanchez. He leads Republican candidate Mayra Flores 48-45, with another Democrat, Rene Coronado, taking an additional 6. Keep in mind that this race is an all-party primary where the race only ends if one candidate finishes over 50%; if not, the top 2 finishers (who’d naturally be Sanchez and Flores) meet again at a later date (yet to be determined). 


Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 12:29:55 AM +00:00

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David Jarman

TX-34: One hazard of liveblogging is the risk of a lead change seconds after you hit ‘post.’ Republican Maya Flores has nudged into the lead for now, with 36% ‘reporting,’ but it’s a slim 46.8-46.3 edge (and, again, short of the 50% mark either candidate needs to win outright).


Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 12:36:43 AM +00:00

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David Jarman

SC-01: And we’ve hit the threshold in the Republican primary in South Carolina’s 1st congressional district in the Charleston area, with 13% ‘in.’ It’s not a blowout for incumbent Nancy Mace, but she’s still clocking in above the 50% mark she needs to avoid a runoff. She’s at 56, to 41 for ex-state Rep. Katie Arrington, the Trump endorsee in this race whom you might remember from 2018, when she beat incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford in the primary and then tanked in the general, losing to Democrat Joe Cunningham. (While Mace didn’t vote to impeach Trump, she didn’t show the proper level of fealty to him post-Jan. 6, hence the opposition.)


Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 1:23:36 AM +00:00

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David Jarman

SC-01, SC-07: Start cuing up “For Whom the Bell Tolls” for Tom Rice. (Or maybe “Hell’s Bells” if you prefer. Just something foreboding that has something to do with bells.) Russell Fry is now leading Rice 49-25 in the 7th district GOP primary with an estimated 49% in; if Fry tops 50%, no runoff is necessary and Fry advances to the general election. Meanwhile, in the 1st district, incumbent Nancy Mace’s lead is looking less imposing; she currently leads Katie Arrington 53-45.


Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 1:48:21 AM +00:00

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David Jarman

TX-34: With 60% of the vote estimated to have been counted, in the Texas special election the Republican, Mayra Flores, is currently at 49% to 45% for Democrat Dan Sanchez, with 4% for another Democrat. Better news for Sanchez is that much of the remaining votes to be counted are in the two most populous counties in the district (Cameron and Hidalgo, in the Rio Grande Valley, as opposed to the redder counties further north). While it doesn’t seem likely that there’s enough there to pull Sanchez back into the lead, the real race here, as with SC-07, is Flores vs. the 50% mark; if she tops that, she wins without a second round.


Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 1:54:21 AM +00:00

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David Jarman

ME-SD-07: One minor piece of good news is that Democratic candidate Nicole Grohoski appears to have won a special election for the remainder of the term in Maine’s vacant 7th Senate district, in the rural area near Acadia National Park. This is a district that Joe Biden won 57-40, but for now Grohoski’s currently running ahead of that benchmark at 61-39.


Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 1:57:32 AM +00:00

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David Jarman

TX-34: Well, those late votes in Cameron County didn’t help much; Flores actually pulled into the lead in Cameron County (where Brownsville is) with the latest dump — only 47.0 to 46.9, but that’s enough to push her total CD-wide to 49.8% (compared to 44.5% for Sanchez). The AP is estimating 65% reporting but this may be off; there aren’t actually a lot of precincts remaining.

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