Trump continued to sink in Indianapolis suburbs, but not far enough to flip key seat to Democrats

Trump continued to sink in Indianapolis suburbs, but not far enough to flip key seat to Democrats

Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide hits Indiana, where Republicans managed to hold onto a suburban seat that, like so many others, has been moving to the left during the Trump era. You can find our detailed calculations here, a large-size map of the results here, and our permanent, bookmarkable link for all 435 districts here.

Donald Trump won Indiana 57-41 against Joe Biden, a result that wasn’t too different from his 57-38 showing against Hillary Clinton four years earlier, and he once again carried seven of the state’s nine congressional districts.

Democrats had hoped that Trump’s toxicity in the suburbs would allow them to flip the open 5th District, which includes the northern Indianapolis area. Mitt Romney had taken this seat 57-41 in 2012, but Trump turned in a weaker 53-41 performance in 2016 even though he performed better statewide. Trump continued to lose ground in this historically red area last year, but he still won it 50-48, while fellow Republican Victoria Spartz ran slightly ahead of the ticket and beat Democrat Christina Hale 50-46. Republicans will control the redistricting process, and they’ll likely try and shore up Spartz.

House Republicans had no trouble holding the other six Trump seats. The closest in the presidential race was the 2nd District in north-central Indiana, where Trump’s 59-39 victory was only slightly smaller than his 59-36 performance last time, while Rep. Jackie Walorski won her fifth term 61-39. Trump exceeded 60% of the vote in his remaining five seats in both 2016 and 2020.

Biden, by contrast, won the two Democratic-held seats that Clinton had taken in 2016. The 1st District in the northwest corner of the state backed Biden 54-45, which was a little narrower than Clinton’s 54-42, but Frank Mrvan won his open seat race by a stronger 57-40. Rep. Andre Carson’s Indianapolis-based 7th District, by contrast, went in the opposite direction and supported Biden 63-35 after going for Clinton 59-36.

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