Ukraine update: Fighting underway as Ukrainian troops enter Kherson. Russia loses its biggest prize

Ukraine update: Fighting underway as Ukrainian troops enter Kherson. Russia loses its biggest prize


UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 2:20:37 AM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

There is a letter circulating from an independent Russian media site claiming that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Dnipro and are decimating Russian forces around Nova Kakhovka. This is unbelievable. As in, I don’t believe it.

But it’s illustrative of just where the Russian mindstate is this evening. They’re ready to run with the most dire rumors.


UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 2:16:56 AM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

Trying to find out what’s happening at Beryslav without a lot of luck. Information from the fighting there is spotty at best. Here are Ukrainian forces preparing for the day in Mylove, which was clearly liberated earlier. 

This is how the 60th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine prepared today for the offensive in the direction of the village of Mylove. T-72, BMP-2, BTR-80, HMMWV with TOW pic.twitter.com/uAMQBhxjoa

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) November 10, 2022


UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 2:14:17 AM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

The other end of the bombardment being directed at Russian forces. Turn down your speakers before playing.

Closer .. pic.twitter.com/ZKkGj1XuDF

— Perry 🇮🇹🇪🇺🇺🇦 (@PerrottaSergio) November 10, 2022


UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 2:07:04 AM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

For the last two days, pro-Russian sites have been insisting that there was a “deal” in place, one that said Ukraine wouldn’t press Russian forces and would allow them to escape across the river to Dnipro in exchange for their agreeing to leave. The idea of this deal never made any sense, but it was very reassuring for Russian sources, both because it meant they would get their troops and equipment across the river, and because it suggested that they were only surrendering Kherson as part of an agreement, rather than being “actually defeated.”

The problem with spreading around a theory like that, is that the wrong people might believe it. Like the guys who needed to be driving full speed for the river in hopes of making some escape.

“There is panic there now. The equipment is abandoned. According to optimistic estimates, the Ukrainian military will capture about 5,000 of our military. According to the pessimistic, the whole group of 20,000 may be captured. This is the end.”

pic.twitter.com/ZLriMnDftg

— calvin streeting (@calvinstreeting) November 10, 2022


UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 1:57:15 AM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

It is really hard to exaggerate just how fucked Russians are on the right bank of the Dnipro. They should honestly just surrender now while they still can.

— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) November 11, 2022


UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 1:09:49 AM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

There is reportedly a whole lot of this going on tonight. It’s 3AM in Kherson. Sunrise is 4 hours away.

A thermal-equipped Ukrainian Aerorozvidka drone drops a grenade on a Russian T-80BVM. pic.twitter.com/BtFRwnDU45

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 10, 2022


UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 12:32:45 AM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

The posts on Russian Telegram channels tonight are almost as incredible as the military situation. One is calling on Ukrainian forces to march on Moscow, destroy the Kremlin, and get it over with. Others are saying that when the images of Russian losses in Kherson become public, it may be enough to end Vladimir Putin.

There seems to be a broad understanding that this isn’t just a repositioning, or even a defeat. It’s a humiliation.


UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 12:04:43 AM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

Russian air defenses have reportedly been withdrawn from the Kherson area. Both Ukrainian planes and drone are reportedly free to work the area, with drones using IR to spot for artillery. Both air strikes and precision guided weapons hitting at both massed forces and vehicles attempting to break away.

This is a very, very bad night for Russia.


UPDATE: Friday, Nov 11, 2022 · 12:00:42 AM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

This time, you can actually see what’s facing the Russian forces that failed to make their way out of Kherson before Thursday night.

Footage of strikes against the retreating Russian military in Kherson region pic.twitter.com/ciQeZU6zCE

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) November 10, 2022


UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 11:54:06 PM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

The official tally. 

.@ZelenskyyUa Today we have good news from the south. The number of Ukrainian flags returning to their rightful place in the framework of the ongoing defense operation is already dozens. 41 settlements were liberated.

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 10, 2022


UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 11:48:06 PM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

This is a small fraction of what’s going to pile up over the coming days. The amount of equipment left behind in Kherson is likely to make the equipment captured in the Kharkiv counteroffensive seem like a blip.

#UkraineWar: Overview of Russian equipment losses added on 10/11/2022 Full list: https://t.co/wxuwttX8Z3 pic.twitter.com/uBedUEZOqp

— Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) November 10, 2022


UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 11:46:08 PM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

Russian paratrooper on his last order in Kherson region “The last oder was change into civilian clothing and run in any direction you wanted”

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) November 10, 2022

Throughout the day, videos and images have shown that Ukrainian forces have been sweeping through Kherson oblast with very little in the way of opposition. However, it’s become clear that many of the videos being released are at least 24 hours old. Ukraine has been moving toward Kherson for the last two days.

And now it’s there. Sources on both sides have confirmed that Ukrainian forces have full control of Bilozerka west of Kherson, as well as Chornobaivka on the immediate northern edge of the town. Both of these places have been, in the recent past, areas with high concentrations of Russian forces and equipment. 

It’s now clear that Russia no longer really controls any area west of the Dnipro River. Whatever plans they had for a fallback defensive line appear to have fallen apart. It’s well after dark in Kherson right now, and Ukrainian forces appear to be still advancing under a nearly full moon. 

Russian control west of the Dnipro has collapsed. Every point in dispute. Open image in another tab for a closer look.

The blue locations are those where multiple sources report they have been liberated by Ukraine. Those still yellow are simply locations for which I don’t have any news, or where they’ve only appeared in unofficial lists. The actual location of Ukrainian forces should be expected to be much different from the area in blue here. That’s especially true in the north, where fighting is reported very near Beryslav.

There are reports that Ukraine is chiefly acting to keep anyone from escaping across the river. They want to bag these guys where they are, so they never have to fight them again, and so that Russia is delivered a crushing blow to morale.

Ukrainian forces have been collecting Russian equipment and Russian stragglers along the roads as they moved rapidly toward Kherson and Beryslav. They’ve also engaged with small Russian forces, eliminating them in passing. 

However, reports from Russian sources put the remaining Russian force on the west bank of the river at an astounding 20,000. If other reports are accurate, those forces are now mostly concentrated in the area of Beryslav, and near the harbor in the city of Kherson. Fighting is going on in both places. And that fighting is not trivial.

This is the sound of #Kherson right now. I pray for the civilians. pic.twitter.com/zjTMnnYTtY

— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 10, 2022

So far, Thursday has been like a celebration in Kherson. Ukrainian forces have advanced capturing an untold bounty of abandoned equipment and being greeted in village, town, and city. Now it is just after midnight there on Friday morning. When the next sunrise comes up, Ukraine could hold all of Kherson, and perhaps all of the oblast west of the river.

If the number of Russians still on the west side is accurate, Ukraine may also be about to take a terrific victory, or be on the receiving end of one of the largest surrenders in history. Some Russian forces are reportedly attempting to flee the city under cover of darkness in small boats, or on anything that will float, hoping to be carried to safety downriver. However, Russian troops deliberately smashed many small boats along the waterfront days ago, probably to prevent anyone from getting this idea too early.

What’s happening in Kherson is going to be a story for the ages, no matter what comes next.

Multiple reports of Russian forces moving through Nova Kakhovka to somewhere east. Possibly the Melitopol area.

Huge columns of Russian military are seen heading south of Nova Kakhovka

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) November 10, 2022

Reports that a lot of that Ukrainian artillery firing in Kherson is doing so to make it clear that attempting to cross the river is a very bad idea.

If you had the impression that – aside from the strategic mess – Russians might at least pull off a withdrawal without chaos, should just wait until regular Ukrainian artillery is in range of the river crossings. This might be the case right now. #Kherson #Ukraine️

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 10, 2022

Ukraine has announced 41 liberated settlements in the Kherson area. The map above is mostly aligned with those announcements, though there are a few spots (mostly small villages) that I haven’t yet updated. 

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