The situation on the ground in Ukraine continues to see only small changes, with Russian forces continuing to stage small attacks as Ukrainian defenders publicize equipment captures behind Russia’s frontlines. Russian state television continues to be apoplectic in their fury over … the rest of the world existing, for the most part.
Most concerning might be the Russian capture of Kurulka, due south of Izyum; that puts Russian troops only 5 miles from a critical Ukrainian rail line. Ukraine is likely to mount a substantive to push those attackers back. Ukraine also appears to be creeping nearer to Kherson, though the probability of a major Ukrainian offensive there seems, for the moment, small.
Russia continues to show no apparent battle plan other than the current probing attacks,
The mass of European and American artillery, tanks, and other heavy weaponry being rushed to Ukrainian forces continues to flow towards the frontlines, making every day of the current near-stalemate considerably more dangerous for Russia than for the country they are invading.
However, the weekend’s biggest news was the continued tendency of major infrastructure inside Russia to violently and inexplicably explode. Two massive fires are burning in Bryansk, 90 miles from Ukraine, after explosions rocked two large oil depots in the city. One of those depots is next to a Russian “artillery and missile storage” site. The cause of both explosions is currently unknown; this, after fires destroyed a Russian missile research facility, a Russian space program facility, and Russia’s largest (and absolutely critical) chemical plant in recent days. It also coincides with a string of bloody murder-suicides plaguing the Russian oligarchy since Russian strongman Vladimir Putin issued his orders to invade.
We remain in the same position as before. Ukrainian defenders around Izyum are in a precarious spot, with any significant Russian advance posing a potential existential risk to the Ukrainian trenchlines that have held for eight years now. But Russia continues to suffer losses not compatible with victory, backed by supply shortages that will put a time limit on its ability to press its assault. The most recent news updates:
- Mariupol holds (and is resupplied!), and is Russia really reaching for Kryvyi Rih?
- Russian state TV delusion reaches new heights as they advocate for Baltic invasion
- Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is …
- No major attacks, no major counterattacks, but lots of small movements
- It’s groundhog day, as Russia learned no lessons from its Kyiv failures
Powered by WPeMatico