Ukraine Update: Massive Ukrainian victory, Russia leaving all of Kharkiv oblast

Ukraine Update: Massive Ukrainian victory, Russia leaving all of Kharkiv oblast

A quick update to get the news up, I’ll flesh this out throughout the day. 

Russians confirm they are leaving the whole of Kharkiv Oblast. That’s right, now leave a few more. pic.twitter.com/bbyhNYBi8M

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 11, 2022

HIMARS caught a retreating Russian unit: 

Here is the what remains of the Russian military column. pic.twitter.com/GlRNp1tGG2

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 11, 2022

From the Russian’s POV:

Withdrawing from Kharkiv direction is not easy for the Russians. This video by Rybar demonstrates a column moving on the highway at night. On the right, you can see a “burning Russian combat vehicle that was attacked by Ukrainian saboteur group”. pic.twitter.com/8FigscihvT

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 11, 2022

More to come.

Sunday, Sep 11, 2022 · 3:04:23 PM +00:00 · kos

Let’s look at the big picture.

Blue hash is Kharkiv oblast, which Russia is supposedly abandoning entirely. Yellow is the parts of Luhansk Oblast Russia conquered since February. Open, empty, with few roads, Russia wasn’t able to hold it in the 2014 war. Not sure how strategic it is right now, and whether Ukraine will want to claw some of that back. 

The pre-invasion Luhansk and Donbas border are clearly defensible, and that’s where Russia presumably will head. The green hash is the part of Kherson Oblast that Ukraine has cut off, with a heavy Russian presence suffering from poor-to-non-existent supply lines. 

But what about the south? Reports a heavy Russian presence in the stretch between Mariupol and Melitopol, and Ukraine can’t cut those troops off. They can be resupplied easily via the Azov sea. Russia’s problem is that supply lines from there to Melitopol (and further west toward Kherson) are served by a single rail line, in the town of Tokmak. 

Expect that place to start showing up soon, the way we always knew Kupiansk and Vovchansk would be keys to liberating Kherson Kharkiv. [It had been a while since I’d made that mistake…] 

Sunday, Sep 11, 2022 · 3:06:59 PM +00:00 · kos

The tractors are back!!! 🇺🇦🚜pic.twitter.com/wUPFfUvpFM

— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) September 11, 2022

Ukraine has gotten armor recovery vehicles from the United States, Germany, and likely others. So the tractors aren’t as singularly important as during the first months of the war. But still nice to see them lending a hand!

I can’t wait to see the tally of Russia’s Lend-Lease program for the Ukrainian army. The number of visually confirmed captured armored vehicles is already well into the dozens, and should easily go into the hundreds.

Sunday, Sep 11, 2022 · 3:10:02 PM +00:00 · kos

#Ukraine: Russian forces left massive quantities of armour around #Izium; in one single location we counted no less than nine T-80U and T-80BV tanks, as well as other hardware (Eight seen in these images). They appear to be in a variety of conditions. pic.twitter.com/SQTJMRVywU

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 11, 2022

Sunday, Sep 11, 2022 · 3:11:47 PM +00:00 · kos

I love liberation videos!

This is what real support looks like! The recently liberated Buhaivka in Kharkiv region Our soldiers were literally gifted with delicious food and congratulations pic.twitter.com/Mb8YiDrb5k

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) September 11, 2022

We’ll need these to carry us over when the war crimes emerge. It’s already happening, and as always, we find out that Irpin and Bucha weren’t special. Russia’s brand of terror has no boundaries.

Sunday, Sep 11, 2022 · 3:18:56 PM +00:00 · kos

Another day, or hour, another liberated town and warm welcoming brave Ukrainian defenders! Love it! Glory to Ukraine! pic.twitter.com/mL9ajAx5hH

— Tonya Levchuk (@TonyaLevchuk) September 11, 2022

Sunday, Sep 11, 2022 · 3:25:24 PM +00:00 · kos

https://t.co/3pYHFsWZ7n thanks @AlyaShandra for this quick interview.

— Mykola Bielieskov (@MBielieskov) September 11, 2022

We’ve been talking about Russia’s insufficient forces since literally before the war began. 

The defense was broken so quickly most likely because the Russians lacked forces. The front is more than 1300 km long, and the Russians have 200,000-250,000 troops. This is decisively insufficient to create a serious tiered defense. Most likely, they only had one tier of defense to the north of Balakliia and the Russians’ defense forces mainly consisted of SOBR rapid-response teams that are not specialized in general warfare but in suppressing protest actions.

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