As Russia continues to mass troops in Ukraine’s east, U.S. military leaders are warning that they expect Russia to launch a “major” offensive from the captured city of Izyum in coming days. What we don’t know, however, is what such an offensive will truly look like.

On one hand, Russia is massing “hundreds” of vehicles in new convoys headed towards Izyum in preparation for such an offensive. On the other hand, many of the forces headed to Russia’s new front are the battered remnants of previous Russian offensives, likely to now be significantly less effective in combat than they once were, traveling down supply lines just as long and tenuous as the ones Russia was forced to abandon north of Kyiv, bogged down by the same command incompetence as before.

Russia continues to use raw numbers to force their way into territory that they may or may not be able to keep, and it’s anybody’s guess as to whether the gamble will pay off. Some of this weekend’s news:

• The challenges of sifting through the fog of war
• Reports say Russia is massing for massive Donbas attack, but can they really?
• Russia’s newest moves seem to mirror the failed tactics that led to Kyiv retreat
• Refugees top 4.5 million; Russian crimes provoke NATO into broader weapons transfers
• Gearing up for a showdown in Kherson
• ‘There just isn’t enough space for the amount of death’
• How Ukraine transformed its military with the help of U.S. Army advisers at a former Soviet base