2022 Election Forecast

2022 Election Forecast

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MAIN
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SENATE
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HOUSE
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GOVERNORS
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UPDATED 34 MINUTES AGO

U.S. SENATE
It’s a toss-up for the Senate
The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.

MAJORITY
57
REP
SEATS
56
55
54
53
52
51
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
DEM
SEATS
52 in 100
52 in 100
Republicans win
Republicans win
48 in 100
48 in 100
Democrats win
Democrats win
Republicans winDemocrats win
SEE THE SENATE FORECAST
U.S. HOUSE
Republicans are favored to win the House
The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.

MAJORITY
270
REP
SEATS
255
240
225
225
240
255
270
DEM
SEATS
87 in 100
87 in 100
Republicans win
Republicans win
13 in 100
13 in 100
Democrats win
Democrats win
Republicans winDemocrats win
SEE THE HOUSE FORECAST
THE LATEST
LAST UPDATED JUNE 30, 2022
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast! We’ve got a bit of a split diagnosis in this election: Republicans are favored to win the House, while the Senate is a toss-up. How can this be? Well, as editor-in-chief Nate Silver writes in his overview of the forecast, the national environment doesn’t look good for Democrats, which is why we expect Republicans to make gains in the House — even though those gains might not be historic. But in the Senate, candidate quality matters a lot more, and this could prove to be a silver lining for Democrats. It’s a similar story in the 36 races for governor.
Remember, though, we’re still a little more than four months away from Election Day, so there’s still plenty of time for things to change. To read more about how our forecasts work, please check out our methodology.
Remember me? I’m Fivey Fox! Welcome to our 2020 forecast. Oh, @#$%&!, it’s the midterms already?
U.S. GOVERNORS
Forecasting each governorship
Each party’s chances of winning the 36 governorships up for election

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Solid R
≥95% R
Likely R
≥75%
Lean R
≥60%
Toss-up
?Send us an email.

*It’s 2022! Read our methodology before you @ us.
Lite
What Election Day looks like based on polls alone

Classic
What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more

Deluxe
What Election Day looks like when we add experts’ ratings to the Classic forecast

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