‘Big trouble’: Trump’s dream of being president again takes a big hit

‘Big trouble’: Trump’s dream of being president again takes a big hit

As the New Hampshire results rolled in Tuesday night, veteran political journalist John Harwood tweeted, “We’re in early stages of massive analytic shift from ‘Biden’s in big trouble’ to ‘Trump’s in big trouble.’”

Harwood’s assessment came in response to an observation from Sarah Longwell, publisher of conservative website The Bulwark, that among anti-Trumpers like her, “there’s more of us” now than there were in 2020.

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As veteran Democratic campaign strategist Joe Trippi noted on his podcast, despite the persistent “Biden’s in trouble” media narrative, if you compare where Biden’s fundamentals are now to where they were when the fanciful “red wave” narrative took hold in 2022, the president is in far better shape today. The economy is humming, gas prices are lower, inflation has eased significantly, and consumer buying power and sentiment are on the upswing. And while Biden’s favorable rating currently sits at 40% and his job approval rating at 35%historically low and unenviable by any stretch—those numbers are still either on par or better than they were in the spring and summer of 2022, when the red wave narrative hit its stride. Plus, Biden’s current net favorable rating is still better than Trump’s by about 5 percentage points

But it was really the numbers under the hood in New Hampshire—a swing state under the right conditions—that exposed Trump’s liabilities as a general election candidate. 

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