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In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election. They also take a look at what could happen if President Trump casts doubt on the legitimacy of the election in November. Powered by WPeMatico
Call it Super Tuesday III: The last big primary day of the season is upon us. Today, millions of voters in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington go to the polls — or, more likely, fill out an absentee ballot — to decide the Republican and Democratic nominees for congressional and state office. There are over a dozen races worth watching today, but here’s the skinny on the most consequential. Kansas Kansas’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate might be the…
By Galen Druke, Sarah Frostenson, Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr., Galen Druke, Sarah Frostenson, Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr., Galen Druke, Sarah Frostenson, Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. and Galen Druke, Sarah Frostenson, Nate Silver and Perry Bacon Jr. More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS Last week economic data revealed the largest-ever quarterly contraction of the U.S. economy. The second-quarter GDP shrunk by an annual rate of nearly 33 percent. In this installment of…
In mid-March, as businesses shuttered, hospitals filled up and Americans hunkered down at home, election officials faced a difficult question: Was it even possible to hold safe and accessible elections in the age of COVID-19? More than four months later, we’re not that much closer to answering that question. Since the World Health Organization declared an official pandemic on March 11, 37 states plus Washington, D.C., have held statewide primaries1 for president or state-level office. And while those that have…
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Will you get robbed this year? How would you rate your chances? Over 10 years, from 1994 to 2004, the national Survey of Economic Expectations asked respondents to do just that. People estimated their risks for a whole host of bad-news life events — robbery, burglary, job loss and losing their health insurance. But the survey didn’t just ask respondents to rate their chances: It also asked whether those things had actually happened to them in the last year. And…
FiveThirtyEight is seeking a reporter to write about politics and elections with a particular focus on race. This person will work both independently and in collaboration with colleagues across the newsroom to produce one to two stories each week about U.S. politics, elections and how race and identity intersect with each. Experience reporting on and writing about race and identity in America is a must. As is some experience with data — how to find it, how to ask questions…
This month, for the first time since April, our tracker of public opinion around the coronavirus shows that the share of Americans who say they are “very” concerned that they or someone they know will become infected with COVID-19 is higher than the share who say they are “somewhat” concerned. That rise in concern is understandable, too, when you consider the spike in new coronavirus cases that began in mid-June, especially in the South and West. Just this past week,…
For this week’s episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, we interviewed Rep. Will Hurd of Texas’s 23rd Congressional District. And as you’ll hear in the podcast and read in selected excerpts below, we covered a lot of ground, including whether Hurd will vote for President Trump in November. By Galen Druke More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS The transcript below has been lightly edited. On whether Hurd will vote for Trump: Galen Druke: I want to talk…
Welcome to another episode of Confidence Interval, where we make a persuasive case for a hot take … and then reveal how confident we really feel about the idea. This time, elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich argues that Joe Biden will pick Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate. Powered by WPeMatico