Political Jason

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our (mostly1) weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week On a very basic level, one big reason why President Trump lost reelection is that he wasn’t very popular. As of Nov. 3, his job approval rating was just 44.6 percent, and his disapproval rating was 52.6 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval average. That -8.1-point2 net approval rating was the third-lowest of any recent3 president on the day they stood for election to a second term. (Jimmy…

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Most political obsessives trying to guess who President-elect Joe Biden might pick to be in his Cabinet are focused on the flashy positions: secretary of state, secretary of defense, attorney general. Then there are us nerds, who are keen to find out who will be the new chair of the Federal Communications Commission. President Trump loves to talk and tweet about his feelings on tech, though his agenda wasn’t exactly clear and consistent. But tech policy is increasingly important in…

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By Galen Druke   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS In the wake of the 2020 election, there’s been plenty of discussion about the accuracy and usefulness of polling. Nationally, the polling error was about 4 points, which is close to the average polling error dating back to 1972. But the polls were significantly off in the Midwest and in Florida, where we’ve repeatedly seen larger-than-average errors underestimating Republicans recently. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast,…

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In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke talks with two A+ rated pollsters — J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray — about the challenges of polling and how to fix them. Powered by WPeMatico

The narrative of the 2020 election is that Joe Biden did pretty well … but down-ballot Democrats, not so much. And while this is true if you look simply at the results — Republicans defended most of their vulnerable Senate seats and gained several seats in the House — there wasn’t actually as much split-ticket voting as you might think. For decades now, how a person votes for president has become a better and better predictor of how she votes…

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In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races — and whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before President Trump has even left the White House. Powered by WPeMatico

By Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Nate Silver and Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Nate Silver   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS Biden’s 2020 electoral map was ultimately a pretty good one for Democrats. While several states may have been closer than Democrats would have liked, Biden won back the “blue…

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Donald Trump is officially a one-term president, the first to fail a reelection bid in nearly 30 years. But history shows his loss isn’t surprising, given the circumstances. One-term presidents used to be a lot more common. Take the period between 1837 (when Andrew Jackson’s second term ended) and 1860, for example — no president served more than one term. And between 1900 and 1932, we had seven presidents, only one of whom served two full terms. (Some died in…

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Last week, President-elect Joe Biden selected many of his top White House aides. This week, he’s announced some top Cabinet and national security posts. There are many, many jobs left to fill — most notably defense secretary and attorney general — but here’s what we’re learning so far about Biden, the Biden administration and how he’ll govern … It’s back to normal — at least as far as Biden’s staffing is concerned As expected, Biden is appointing very traditional people,…

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