Ukraine update: Where are all the Russians dying?

Ukraine update: Where are all the Russians dying?

According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, 840 Russians died in combat on November 3. They took with them 16 tanks, 28 armored vehicles, and 17 artillery pieces. It’s an absolutely astounding tally for a single day’s combat. Only a day earlier, they recorded 730 deaths, 20 tanks, 27 vehicles, and 22 big guns. The day before that, it was another 800 deaths and 16 tanks, and the day before that …

These kind of huge numbers have been turning up daily for more than a month, ramping up from less than 200 reported deaths a day back in mid-September, to over 500, then over 600, then an almost solid stream of days between 700 and 950 reported deaths. Equipment losses have followed suit, with almost every category of loss increasing over that period.

These losses have been so great, that many seemed to assume that there was a “secret war” going on somewhere. Surely numbers like this meant that Ukraine was actually pushing deep into Kherson, or plunging through Russian lines near Svatove, There’s been an assumption that, when the source of all these numbers was eventually revealed, some whole new area of conflict would come to light along with it.

But as the days drag on, and those numbers remain high, the idea that there’s something going on unseen starts to seem a little silly. Ukrainian operational security has been tight, but no one’s OpSec is so good that they can disguise battles that have racked up 20,000 dead, on just the Russian side, over the course of five weeks. If the Ukrainian MOD is correct, more Russians have died than the whole pre-war population of Borova, Lyman, or Svatove. So, where did this happen?

The best answer seems to be that this massive number of deaths happened right out in front of everyone. Along the 150km eastern front that’s roughly centered on Bakhmut.

On Thursday, Ukraine reportedly launched a series of p[robing attacks along the northern line in Kherson, and conducted attacks at three reported locations in Kharkiv. But here’s just one day’s record of Russian actions on the eastern flank of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On Thursday, Russia attacked: Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Krasnohorivka, Mayorsk, Nevelske, Novomykolaivka, Opytne, Pavlivka, Pervomaiske, Prechystivka, Soledar, Spirne, Verkhnokamyanske, Vodyane, Vuhledar, and Yakovlivka.

These are not the locations that Russia shelled. There are far more of those. These are on-the-ground, actual assaults, with the intention of taking ground from Ukrainian defenders. This was also not one large, sweeping assault. Those are all individual actions. A few of them turned into slight gains. Some of them (ahem, Soledar) were reportedly crushing defeats. None of them were made without losses. In addition to all the towns attacked above, Russia apparently organized a large, offensive in an attempt to push west of Pisky. Which also failed.

This was also not a particularly active day. The eastern front has been like this, day in and day out, while everyone (myself included) has been more interested in the big movements in Kharkiv, Kherson, northern Donetsk, and now Luhansk.

Where are those 20,000 dead Russians? On the ground, from about 50km north, to 100km south of Bakhmut. This is a place that has known not a moment of peace, and barely a moment that wasn’t in the midst of an active assault, for almost eight straight months.

Russia has advanced in the north, near Bilohorivka. Open in another tab for a closer look.

The most obvious point of Russia’s advance on the map may be at the very northern end of the line. Russian forces have pushed out from around Lysychansk to reach the edge of Bilohorivka, taking back the area that Ukraine has (lightly) held since shortly after the liberation of Izyum. There seems to have been a general movement of Russian forces to the west in the whole area east of Siversk, though there doesn’t seem to have been any real exchange of villages or critical positions.

In the middle of this section is Spirne, where Ukrainian forces have been moving east over the last two weeks. Why Ukraine is pushing in at this point, and exactly how far this mini-salient extends, isn’t clear.

At the very southern end of this section, there was extremely heavy fighting near Soledar over the last three days. Multiple reports hint that this has not gone well for Russia, with very high casualties and loss of equipment. Some of those reports suggest Russia actually lost significant ground in this area (between 2 and 5km). Still waiting on confirmation.

Bakhmut Area. Open in another tab for a closer look.

South of Bakhmut, the line has straightened and shifted a bit to the west following a Russian offensive that now seems to have ground to a halt. Two weeks ago, Russian forces were repelled violently from Bakhmut itself, giving up weeks of grinding, high-cost advances throughout a two-day Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russia then seemed to shift forces south, and succeeded in advancing west of Zaitseve, as well as to the south near Toretsk.

Russia now holds parts of the highway south of Bakhmut, which doesn’t really change anything in terms of supplies. It’s also not clear that it gives them any ability to shift forces more quickly, as all of this area is still under fire control from massed Ukrainian artillery. Russia clearly wanted to move far enough to gain another angle from which to attack Bakhmut, but it doesn’t seem they’ve succeeded, and their attacks in this area have stopped gaining ground.

The whole area continues to be a slugfest, with the biggest change being that Russia, more than ever, seems willing to pile up corpses—literally—in order to make even the most minimal advance.

When you think of those 20,000 Russians lost, think of them here. During the American Civil War, there were some battles where losses were high enough that survivors said it was possible to walk across portions of the battlefield without ever sitting a foot on the ground. That’s what’s going on near Bakhmut. That’s where those numbers are coming from.

Barring any big developments, those who tune in on Saturday are going to get the first part of the Field Guide to Drones of Ukraine—it had to be broken into parts, as it ran right through the limits of how long a post can be, and those are some pretty big limits. In any case, here’s someone else’s breakdown of a drone that has dominated the news since it reached Ukraine, but which may soon be of secondary importance. 

Mini-review of the Shahed-136 kamikaze drone by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 4, 2022

The Washington Post has an extensive article looking at why they don’t believe Russia will surrender Kherson without a massive battle.

The Kherson region forms the last crucial component of the “land bridge” from mainland Russia to Crimea that Putin has coveted ever since Moscow invaded the peninsula and annexed it illegally in 2014. And the inability to reach Crimea by road was a main reason Putin spent $4 billion to build the Crimean Bridge across the Kerch Strait.

Russian sources are starting to realize that the Russian attack South of Avdiika/Donetsk failed. The attack on Pavlivka ended in utter disaster yesterday and now Marinka and Novo Mykhailivka are stopped. North of Pisky is the last attempt but this one is even more costly.#Ukraine

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 4, 2022

UPDATE: Friday, Nov 4, 2022 · 8:29:48 PM +00:00

Mark Sumner

US🇺🇸 has taken a big step forward by providing Ukraine 🇺🇦 with 250 M1117 Armored Combat Vehicles The next step for Ukraine would be getting M1120 Stryker, M2/M3 Bradley, and lastly Abrams Tanks

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) November 4, 2022

UPDATE: Friday, Nov 4, 2022 · 8:14:46 PM +00:00

Mark Sumner

Which drone is most worrying in Ukraine right now? It’s not the Iranian products. It’s this one.

RUS kamikaze drone Lancet hit UKR Project 58155 Gyurza-M gunboat – Artificial intelligence upscaled 150% + dehalo +compression reverse + injection 30 to 60 FPS + 200% Slow Mo

— Dariusz Zawadzki (@Military_oO) November 4, 2022

The Lancet-3, from Russian company Zala, is about the same size as a Switchblade 600 (if there were any Switchblade 600s — see tomorrow’s guide for more on that) and it really demonstrates what a kamikaze drone in this range can do. At the beginning of the war, weapons like the Javlin raised the question “are tanks dead,” and the answer was no. 

Now ask that again, when someone can direct the equivalent of a Javelin hit from 40km away, and with a device that’s actually cheaper than a Javelin.

If Russia can make Lancets in large quantities, it’s a big threat to the Ukrainian battlefield.

UPDATE: Friday, Nov 4, 2022 · 6:44:58 PM +00:00

Mark Sumner

My kingdom (such as it is) for a good picture of a Phoenix Ghost. Seriously, if you see an article on the Phoenix Ghost that isn’t just using pictures of a Switchblade or some other drone, send it my way. That said, someone must be pretty happy with the initial performance. 

The HAWK system is something that Ukraine is eagerly anticipating, for potential use against Russia’s growing fleet of Iranian drones. And those armored boats. Hmm. That’s interesting.

USA 🇺🇸 has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine worth $400 Million 🇺🇦 It includes -45 T-72 Tanks -1,100 Phoenix Ghost Drones -40 Armored Riverine Boats -250 M117 Armored Vehicles and HAWK SAM missiles will be refurbished then transferred to Ukraine in future packages

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) November 4, 2022

UPDATE: Friday, Nov 4, 2022 · 6:37:58 PM +00:00

Mark Sumner

This is at Ploshchanka, which pretty much settles the idea of whether or not Ukraine had actually reached that location. I’ve had two reports that Ukraine has liberated the town, but more confirmation would be nice.

Drone footage from the Eastern front, of Ukrainian paratrooper ambushing a Russian tank from a very close range.#Russia #Ukraine

— BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) November 4, 2022

UPDATE: Friday, Nov 4, 2022 · 6:30:14 PM +00:00

Mark Sumner

This boy has had a long vigil, and we can guess that it hasn’t gone without peril in a lot of different forms. 

Instead of a thousand words. Six grader Maksym stands at the entrance to Kharkiv to greet Ukrainian Defenders coming to the city. He started doing this on 24th February. 📷: suspilne

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 4, 2022

UPDATE: Friday, Nov 4, 2022 · 6:27:53 PM +00:00

Mark Sumner

The best Russian T-90M tank has already been repaired and is in service of the AFU According to Oryx, the Russians lost a total of about five such tanks. Three tanks were destroyed, one exploded on a mine, and one was abandoned and was given to the AFU as a trophy.

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) November 4, 2022

At long last, the 2022 midterms are almost here! With the battle for the House front and center, we give you a window into the key races on a final pre-election episode of The Downballot. We discuss a wide range of contests that will offer insight into how the night is going, including top GOP pickup opportunities, second-tier Republican targets, and the seats where Democrats are on offense. And with many vote tallies likely to stretch on for some time, we also identify several bellwether races in states that count quickly.

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